Adyen: Persistent Growth (Ticker: ADYEN)
An introductory (and timely) research report on a stock that’s been on my radar for years.
Today, paid subscribers for Emerging Moats are receiving a full research report on Adyen. Here are links to my three most recent research reports, published every four weeks. Quarterly updates on Coupang, The Real Brokerage, and Portillo’s are coming on the next three Fridays. Check out the website for full coverage.
Opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at a fair price – a truly fair price – are rare. As Buffett says, an investor may follow a stock for a decade before finding the right valuation entry point, testing their patience as they sit at home plate, letting pitch after pitch hit the catcher’s mitt without swinging.
Bull markets can make waiting for the fat pitch painful. It will also make you feel stupid and inferior (trust me, I’d know). But it is this patience that can make the bear markets and drawdowns that much more rewarding when said opportunities finally arise.
I have followed Adyen since 2021, but have never owned a share due to valuation concerns. It has sat on the watchlist, gathering dust.
Today, that may change, which is why I decided to pull this research report forward to early March.
The payments processor is down 66% from its 2021 highs, recently puking after a slightly disappointing 2026 revenue growth guidance, meaning you can now buy a stake in a business that has grown its revenue at 35% annually for a decade at roughly 20x pre-tax 2026 earnings.
The question is: why? Is now the best opportunity we will ever get to buy Adyen stock? Or is the current drawdown warranted because of a fundamental change to the business?
In this research report, I will cover:
The contrarian player in payments
A history of market share gains
Why a customer chooses, sticks with, and grows with Adyen
Why I like Adyen’s culture
Competitive threats
Is there an emerging moat?
Financial modeling
My investment decision
The contrarian player in payments
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Emerging Moats Research to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.