Half-Year Returns + Short Portfolio Update

Plus, what I care about as an individual investor.

Next three weeks: Adyen (quarterly update), Coupang (quarterly update), BBB Foods (Full Research Report)

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Twice a year, the Friday newsletter will update readers on the performance of the Emerging Moats portfolio (unpaywalled) and go through the existing short book (paywalled). My strategy should be evaluated over a multiyear period, but I think it is only fair for anyone curious about the premium newsletter to see how Emerging Moats is progressing.

In these newsletters, I will also highlight any previous research that I have removed the paywall from. Again, in the interest of transparency for potential paid subscribers.

The Emerging Moats portfolio encapsulates 100% of my invested assets. As someone staring down the barrel of 30 and no family obligations, I have one goal: to maximize long-term returns. Performance will always be evaluated using money-weighted returns since this is not a fixed pool of capital. Returns will be compared to the S&P 500 money-weighted return – meaning what my returns would be if simply investing in an index fund every time I deposited funds –, but this does not mean I am scratching and clawing to chase the S&P 500 annually. If the S&P 500 has ripped 100% in a few years while the portfolio lags at a 60% return in a low-risk portfolio, I will not be concerned. Conversely, if the S&P 500 has crashed 40% over a three-year period and the Emerging Moats portfolio has “beaten” it by only falling 20%, I will be disappointed in myself. This is a strategy that should deliver positive returns over almost any three-year period.

All that said, here is how the Emerging Moats portfolio has performed in the two years since I began tracking performance in July 2024:

• Total Return since inception: 30.57%

• S&P 500 total return since inception: 43.37%

• Annualized since inception: 14.00%

• S&P 500 annualized since inception: 19.34%

• YTD returns: 11.1%

• S&P 500 YTD returns: 10.28%

I am not unhappy with 14% annual gains over two years in the face of a raging AI bull market I have not participated in, and where some holdings have been deemed direct losers due to memory chip price hikes. 7% of the portfolio remains in a long-term treasuries ETF, which has been put on for optionality in a down market.

There have been some losses, sure, but they have been outweighed by gains from a few larger winners. All the portfolio’s gains from inception can be netted out to four winners: Oscar Health, Nelnet, IBKR, and Remitly Global. Half of these gains are from Oscar Health alone. My best outcomes are when I make 8-12 decently sized bets in growth compounders and let the few winners run.

All Oscar Health updates now have the paywall removed. With many years of expected returns within a few months (gains from the purchase on March 6th are already at 120%), I don’t believe I am cheating paying subscribers by giving everyone access to these reports. Any future Oscar Health updates will still be for paying subscribers only.

Here are the three Oscar Health reports in the last year that anyone can now read:

• Oscar Health: Unstuck (May 22nd, 2026)

• Oscar Health: 2026 Rebound (December 26th, 2025)

• Oscar Health: Undervalued or Overhyped? (July 30th, 2025)

Now, let’s talk about the short portfolio.

Short Portfolio Performance

The strategy of highly diversified shitco shorting has delivered positive returns (net of interest expense) since its start in April of last year.