Portillo’s: Extended Trough (Ticker: PTLO)

Zooming in on Q4 results, then zooming out to what went wrong with this restaurant chain.

Next three weeks: MercadoLibre (full research report), Gambling.com Group (quarterly update), and Kraken Robotics (quarterly update).

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“There is no reason to panic sell because the stock plummeted. However, I am getting weary of management continuing to move the goalposts with their long-term goal of 10%+ revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. If this keeps getting delayed, we will not see an inflection in free cash flow, and the stock price will go nowhere.

Interim delays have brought me tremendous opportunities (look at Sprouts Farmers Market’s stock chart) while also falling knives like (Match Group). I am willing to wait a few more quarters at the risk of holding a Match Group to make sure I do not miss another Sprouts Farmers Market.”

I wrote the above quotation as a conclusion to my quarterly update on Portillo’s back in August of 2025. This was written before the Emerging Moats paywall was enacted, so it remains free for anyone to read. Paywalled articles have more detailed analysis, for anyone wondering.

The stock was trading at around $7.25 at the time of publishing. Today, it trades at $5.40. Since then, there has been a strategic reset on unit expansion, an overhaul of the executive team, two more quarterly earnings, and initial guidance for 2026. So far, it is looking much more like a “Match Group” than a “Sprouts Farmers Market,” using my above analogy.

Almost everything surrounding Portillo’s is negative. I have been completely wrong about this stock, making it a big loser for me in 2025. But does that mean I am selling or doubling down on my thesis?

Subscribers to Emerging Moats already know my decision. Today, readers will get my full analysis of Portillo’s latest quarter and how I am analyzing the stock for 2026. Along with last week’s update on The Real Brokerage, this has been a time for covering some of the biggest drags in my portfolio. I am not going to be a newsletter that only discusses winners to grab empty-calorie subscribers. We all want to become better investors, and learning from our mistakes is the best way to do that.

In this article, I will be covering:

• Portillo’s Q4 earnings

• My thoughts on the rejuvenation plan

• New management and restaurant industry outlook

• Is there still an emerging moat?

• My investment decision

Portillo’s Q4 earnings