Interactive Brokers: Predictions Explosion? (Ticker: IBKR)

Plus, trades for the week.

Upcoming Schedule: Nu Holdings (Full Research Report), Remitly Global (Quarterly Update), Off week. I plan to take one off week semi-annually, meaning subscribers will receive 50 Fridays with reports in their inboxes per year. I would rather take a week off for vacation than give you a subpar report while trying to work and travel at the same time.

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“The market cap at my cost basis was $71.5 billion, or less than 15x 2025 operating income. Today, we sit at a market cap of $128 billion, or just under 27x 2025 operating earnings. Not exactly a fire sale, but nowhere near a price where I would consider trimming solely on valuation. That would be closer to 50x-60x bull-market operating earnings, or a double from here.” - Interactive Brokers: Changes Brewing

I think about Nomad’s investment portfolio far too often. Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire Hathaway. Nothing more. Buying and holding these three stocks brought forth one of the best track records of the 21st century, and anyone could have copied them.

Is it really that simple? If one picks the correct stocks utilizing something like Nomad, one can beat 99% of investors by sitting at the beach while they stay at home and overtrade.

Life after concentrating in emerging moat compounders and never selling.

Who doesn’t want that?

The key is finding companies with increasing competitive advantages at scale (or, as you might say, an emerging moat) trading at a reasonable price. I believe I have 4-5 candidates within this framework – all existing holdings – that I could turn into a Nomad-style concentrated portfolio in a market downturn.

Which brings us to this week’s newsletter on Interactive Brokers. The trading platform is one of my favorite Nomad-style businesses that keeps separating itself from the competition through scaled-economies driven low prices, increased asset tradeability, and a culture of innovation.

Where I wrestle with the investment is balancing my love for the business and the stock’s current earnings multiple. When more money gets deposited into my brokerage account (at IBKR, of course), I have to decide whether to add to my position or keep diluting it down as a % of my assets. Hard decisions when the stock is up north of 100% over the last twelve months and trading at a P/E ratio pushing 40 on bull-market earnings.

In this quarterly update, I will cover:

• Q1 2026 Earnings

• The state of the prediction markets push

• Is there still an emerging moat?

• My investment decision

• Portfolio Update

Q1 2026 Earnings