Gambling.com Group: Managed Transition (Ticker: GAMB)

Plus, portfolio decisions I am making today

Next Three weeks: Kraken Robotics (quarterly update), Interactive Brokers (quarterly update), Nu Holdings (Full Research Report)

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“Yeah. I think you need to kind of take two lenses on that. Our referrals from LLMs are up substantially, you know, quarter-over-quarter, and that’s something we expect to see going forward. So that’s a positive trend. You know, on a macro lens, it doesn’t appear yet that that’s eating at Google at the moment. The issues we’re seeing are more so with Google itself, and as we noted, that November ranking rebound has not quite persisted. With Google, there’s two core challenges. One is offshore spam. This is particularly in international markets, this channelization issue due to kinda overly burdensome regulations. And two, negative SEO attacks, which is something we haven’t really discussed before. These are both unique to online gambling with search.” - Q4 2025 Conference Call

Catching falling knives requires buying knowing pain is to follow. It is close to impossible to time the bottom, meaning that, more likely than not, buying a stock that has fallen 50% will lead to another 20% drawdown. Expect this going in or else you will be disappointed. It can also make you look stupid for a short while (people hate looking stupid).

What is sacrificed in the first six months can be made up for over the next three years (or ten), as long as your thesis is correct on the business. Mr. Market is generally focused on the next few quarters, if not a shorter time horizon, giving individuals an edge even in the age of AI. This is why I like to fish in this pond and why I want to always invest on a multi-year time horizon.

The first few quarters after buying a falling knife are the most crucial, and the most risky. A stock does not fall 60% without reason. It is the investor’s job to determine whether this drawdown is due to a temporary disruption or a permanent impairment, meaning you might have to cut bait only a few months after buying in order to save yourself from a 50% loss. Never buy more until the stock starts working. I learned that the hard way.

We are at this moment for Gambling.com Group. The gambling marketer and data provider is down 27% over the last three months and 67% over the last twelve months. Brutal. Definitely a falling knife with a narrative taking hold that it will be an AI “loser” due to its reliance on Google Search results to feed its affiliate websites that make up the majority of revenue today.

As I will discuss behind the paywall, this narrative doesn’t tell the full story. My job is to determine whether the company can get back on the right footing and whether the stock looks attractive at a measly market cap of $137 million.

In this quarterly update, I will cover:

• AI headwinds, but different from what you think

• Subscription revenue opportunity

• Capital allocation priorities

• CEO transition

• Is there still an emerging moat?

• My investment decision

AI headwinds, but different from what you think

63% of Gambling.com Group revenue came from performance marketing in 2025: